Champions trophy:India in another Icc final…?

India boast the best win percentage in the last two years (an extraordinary 70%), the meanest bowling economy and the best runs per wicket average. There is no doubt they are the best team and it is very hard to see how they fail to make the last four, not least because if they do start to struggle rules will be bent to ease their passage (see the concussion sub ruling farce against England in the recent T20 series).

But there is one factor that does weaken them; the absence of Jasprit Bumrah. Bumrah is the best pacer in the world and has been ruled out with injury. India are undoubtedly weaker without him. But in real terms what size hole does he leave?

Well, with and without Bumrah (last two years), India’s economy goes from 5.12 runs per over to 5.39. And the bowling averages rises from 24.6 to 26.9. They are not exactly catastrophic changes.

To put the economy and bowling average numbers into context without Bumrah, India would still rank No 1 on the former and third on the latter set against the other seven teams in the competition. They might not miss him as much as one thinks.

There is also a suggestion that a toss bias in Dubai could trip them up in day-night games. There is no evidence of a bias in the 27 games, although we have to be aware it could be a factor because of how dew made chasing so much easier in the ILT20. In short, India should win the title.

Champions trophy:India in another Icc final…?

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