India and New Zealand are set to face each other in their final group match of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025. Both teams have already secured their spots in the semi-finals, making this match primarily a decider for the top position in the group.
India’s Team News:
Rohit Sharma’s Fitness: The Indian captain experienced a hamstring issue during the match against Pakistan. He was seen struggling after a long chase to the boundary and briefly left the field before returning to bat. During a training session on Wednesday, Rohit did not participate in net practice but engaged in light jogging and worked with the strength and conditioning coach. Given India’s assured semi-final berth, there’s speculation that Rohit might be rested for the New Zealand game to ensure his fitness for the knockout stages.
Mohammed Shami’s Availability: Shami has been managing an ankle injury and showed signs of discomfort during the Pakistan match, requiring attention from the physio. Considering his recent fitness challenges and the upcoming semi-final, the team management might opt to rest him against New Zealand.
Potential Replacements: If Rohit is rested, Rishabh Pant is a likely candidate to fill the spot, with KL Rahul possibly moving up to open the batting. In Shami’s absence, Arshdeep Singh, known for his ability to swing the ball and bowl crucial overs, could be included in the playing XI.
India’s Probable XI:
- Shubman Gill (captain)
- KL Rahul
- Virat Kohli
- Shreyas Iyer
- Axar Patel
- Rishabh Pant
- Hardik Pandya
- Ravindra Jadeja
- Harshit Rana
- Arshdeep Singh
- Kuldeep Yadav
New Zealand’s Team News:
Daryl Mitchell’s Return: Having recovered from illness, Mitchell is expected to return to the playing XI. This inclusion might mean that a batter would have to make way, with discussions suggesting that Will Young, despite his recent century against Pakistan, might be the one to sit out. Former Kiwi player Simon Doull has indicated that Devon Conway is the preferred option.
Bowling Combination: On a pitch that has shown signs of wear, New Zealand might rely more on their spin options. With the potential of utilizing up to 40 overs of spin, the inclusion of Kyle Jamieson might be reconsidered. Pacers Matt Henry and Will O’Rourke could suffice, complemented by Mitchell’s ability to bowl pace.
New Zealand’s Probable XI:
- Devon Conway
- Rachin Ravindra
- Kane Williamson (captain)
- Daryl Mitchell
- Tom Latham
- Glenn Phillips
- Michael Bracewell
- Mitchell Santner
- Kyle Jamieson
- Matt Henry
- Will O’Rourke
Both teams are likely to make strategic changes to manage player workloads and adapt to the pitch conditions, keeping the upcoming semi-finals in mind.
Pitch Report:
—a stodgy square that takes spin—it suggests a slow and possibly low-bouncing surface, making stroke-making difficult.
With India successfully chasing but with some alarms, it indicates that while chasing is possible, it’s not straightforward. The recent scores—Bangladesh 228 and Pakistan 241—suggest that 250-260 could indeed be a winning total if the pitch continues to play slow.
Teams might look to play cautiously early on, targetting spinners wisely, and ensure they have wickets in hand for the final overs.
Prediction:
We’re highlighting a compelling angle on the game. While India are rightly favorites at 1.49, New Zealand at 3.00 presents some value, particularly given their spin options and fielding prowess.
our analysis suggests that New Zealand’s best route to victory is batting first, recognizing that a massive score isn’t necessary—just something around 250-260 to put pressure on India. Their ability to take pace off the ball and squeeze could be key, especially if they can create scoreboard pressure in the second innings.
India’s strategy should involve attacking Mitchell Santner, possibly unsettling him early to avoid getting bogged down in the middle overs. Given Dubai’s conditions, this could be a tight, low-scoring thriller, especially if New Zealand manage to get India chasing under lights.
Would you say New Zealand’s best chance is through spin, or do you see their pace attack also playing a major role?